Charting the Future Global Status of Oil and Natural Gas using Grey Forecasting

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Fatemeh Dehdar
Su-Fei Yap
M.S. Naghavi
M. Mahdi Dehdar


This study adopts Grey Forecasting offering an alternative method of forecasting oil and natural gas production and consumption. The Accumulated Generation Operation (AGO) decreases the randomness of data which is one of its critical features. Employing the GM (1, 1) model, the results show that the world will face an oil deficit of 10 million barrels daily by 2025 and a gas surplus of 30 billion cubic meters. Policy makers are warned to change the existing increasing consumption practices for oil and natural gas as well as to seek new solutions for the short-term, medium-term and long term.


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